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LSTM and artificial neural network for urban bus travel time prediction based on spatiotemporal eigenvectors
ZHANG Xinhuan, LIU Hongjie, SHI Junqing, MAO Chengyuan, MENG Guolian
Journal of Computer Applications    2021, 41 (3): 875-880.   DOI: 10.11772/j.issn.1001-9081.2020060467
Abstract450)      PDF (859KB)(545)       Save
Aiming at the problem that "with the increase of the prediction distance, the prediction of travel time becomes more and more difficult", a comprehensive prediction model of Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based on spatiotemporal eigenvectors was proposed. Firstly, 24 hours were segmented into 288 time slices to generate time eigenvectors. Secondly, the LSTM time window model was established based on the time slices. This model was able to solve the window movement problem of long-time prediction. Thirdly, the bus line was divided into multiple space slices and the average velocity of the current space slice was used as the instantaneous velocity. At the same time, the predicted time of each space slice would be used as the spatial eigenvector and sent to the new hybrid neural network model named LSTM-A (Long Short Term Memory Artificial neural network). This model combined with the advantages of the two prediction models and solved the problem of bus travel time prediction. Finally, based on the experimental dataset, experiments and tests were carried out:the prediction problem between bus stations was divided into sub-problems of line slice prediction, and the concept of real-time calculation was introduced to each related sub-problem, so as to avoid the prediction error caused by complex road conditions. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm is superior to single neural network models in both accuracy and applicability. In conclusion, the proposed new hybrid neural network model LSTM-A can realize the long-distance arrival time prediction from the dimension of time feature and the short-distance arrival time prediction from the dimension of spatial feature, thus effectively solving the problem of urban bus travel time prediction and avoiding the remote dependency and error accumulation of buses.
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